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Things change. You should expect 10% of your mail to be undeliverable for consumers and 15% for businesses. 17% of people in the US move each year and even USPS occupant data only has a 97% delivery rate.
Mail converts at 0.8% - 1.2%. Repeat mailing increases that to 1.2% - 2.6%. 1,500 to 2,500 postcards repeated 3 times over 9 weeks is a good test. Read stats from 2015 here.
All of the data is scrubbed with the National Change of Address (NCOA) database, the Do-Not-Mail registries, and the prison and pander files. Remember, all consumer data starts with self-reported information.
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